Bitcoin stands on the brink of closing October with a downturn, potentially marking its first “red October” in seven years. Limited support from Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and easing US-China trade tensions contributes to this shift, challenging the cryptocurrency’s historical patterns.
Bitcoin Poised for First Red October in Seven Years: What Lies Ahead in November?
Bitcoin may end October in the red, snapping a six-year streak of positive “Uptober” performances. Traders show sharp divisions—some fear a major pullback ahead, while others remain optimistic about fourth-quarter highs.
Bitcoin appears set to conclude October with a decline for the first time in seven years, leaving traders split on whether November will extend the downward trend.
Ending the Uptober Winning Streak
After six consecutive years of Uptober gains, Bitcoin could shatter this record in 2025.
People fondly call October “Uptober” because, since 2013, it has delivered some of the best single-month returns for Bitcoin over the past decade, with only two downturns in 2014 and 2018.
The streak strengthened with consistent rises from 2019 to 2024.
With just hours left in the month, Bitcoin has dropped 3.35% in October, signaling a potential reversal for 2025.
Analyst Jelle posted on X: “Last day of the month—we need a strong pump today, or we’ll witness the first red October close in seven years.”
The month’s losses intensified due to a mid-month flash crash triggered by US-China tariff threats, and the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday offered little help in boosting investor sentiment.
“October turns red for the first time in seven years!” TraderAAG wrote in an X post, adding:
“The crypto market humbled many traders this month—momentum faded, confidence shook.”
Another analyst, Crypto Damus, noted that Bitcoin’s volatility this month “feels abnormal,” as October historically ranks as BTC’s second-best month of the year.
Uncertain November Ahead?
While some traders argue that October’s dip “merely sets up a bigger November rebound,” others believe Bitcoin’s bull cycle has faltered and may near its end.
The last time BTC closed October down was in 2018, followed by a brutal 36.57% drop in November, analyst Crypto Rover stated in a Friday X post, adding:
“Should we worry this time?”
“What does a weak October mean for Bitcoin?” author and analyst Timothy Peterson asked in his latest X post, adding that “there’s basically no correlation between October and subsequent months.”
However, Peterson noted that Bitcoin’s growth typically slows in the fourth quarter after a weak October.
“Post-weak October, Bitcoin’s three-month returns average 11% (2016-); strong Octobers yield 21%.”
Bitcoin Price Performance Post-October. Source: Timothy Peterson
November historically emerges as Bitcoin’s top-performing month, averaging 46% gains over 12 years since 2013. CoinGlass data shows the October-to-December period as BTC’s best quarter for price surges, with an average 78% increase.
Looking back, Bitcoin rose about 57% in Q4 2023 and 48% in Q4 2024. The 2017 surge stood out even more, climbing 480% from October 1 to December 1.
Even in bear cycles, like -42% in 2018 and -15% in 2022, losses marked exceptions. Regardless, the year’s final quarter always brings notable volatility.
If history serves as a guide, Bitcoin’s price action could reverse in November, potentially soaring to $150,000 by the end of 2025. This momentum might also energize cryptocurrency mining hardware demand, as miners seek efficient wholesale ASIC miners to capitalize on rising profitability.
