Bitcoin (BTC) shows signs of resilience on Friday, climbing 1.5% to break above $116,000 for the first time in three weeks. However, beneath this price recovery, a concerning trend emerges from key on-chain metrics. According to data from CryptoQuant, eight out of ten indicators on the firm’s Bull Market Score Index turn bearish, signaling a significant weakening of momentum despite the price holding just 6.8% below its all-time high.
CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn highlights this divergence, stating that the momentum clearly weakens. The Bull Market Score Index, which comprises ten crucial on-chain and technical indicators, now shows only two metrics remaining bullish: Bitcoin Demand Growth and Technical Signals. The Bitcoin Demand Growth metric, which gauges market appetite for the asset, maintains a bullish stance since July. Meanwhile, Technical Signals tracks common technical analysis patterns.
The Bearish Shift in Key Metrics
The eight bearish indicators paint a more cautious picture:
1、MVRV Z-Score: Measures how expensive BTC stands relative to its realized value.
2、Profit-to-Loss Ratio: Shows what percentage of the supply sits in profit.
3、Bull-Bear Cycle Signal: Reflects overall market sentiment.
4、Exchange Liquidity Pulse: Indicates the flow of assets between exchanges.
5、Network Activity: Tracks on-chain transaction volume and active addresses.
6、Stablecoin Liquidity: Measures the availability of stablecoins for trading.
7、On-Chain Trader Yield: Tracks the profitability of traders.
8、Realized Price: The average price at which all coins last move.
This marks the first time since April—when Bitcoin corrects to $75,000—that such a high proportion of indicators turn negative. The contrast stands stark compared to July, when BTC first hits its $122,800 peak and eight of the ten indicators stay bullish.
The overall CryptoQuant Bull Market Score Index, which aggregates all these metrics, fluctuates between 20 and 30 this month, indicating a continued market correction. Moreover, this aligns with the CoinGlass Bitcoin Bull Index (CBBI), which currently reads 74, suggesting the bull market approaches its three-quarter mark. However, only one of CoinGlass’s 30 bull market top indicators—the Altcoin Season Index—triggers so far, suggesting a potential extension of the cycle rathe
Analyst Perspectives on the Rally's Risks
Market analysts offer mixed interpretations. Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at SignalPlus, notes that while crypto prices remain stable overall, BTC clearly lags behind its peers, as well as versus stocks and spot gold. She observes a slowdown in net buying momentum and declining digital asset inflows, with investors showing a preference for equity-like assets. Consequently, the near-term outlook looks more challenging, and we prefer to adopt a more defensive stance, Fan adds, aligning with the difficult seasonal patterns often seen for risk assets in September.
Conversely, some analysts view this as a typical September pullback within a prolonged cycle
Crypto podcast host Tony Edward points to recovering global liquidity attempting to make new highs. This bull cycle appears to elongate, he states, predicting a phase high in Q4 and a peak in Q1 2026.
The current correction remains notably shallower than in previous cycles, and Bitcoin’s hold near its all-time high suggests underlying strength. Nevertheless, the prevailing message from the majority of on-chain indicators signals caution, advising investors to monitor these signals closely for any shift in market structure.
For miners using a bitcoin mining calculator to assess returns, this divergence could impact profitability, especially as network activity and demand growth influence coin values and rig efficiency.
