Bitcoin starts November 2025 on a shaky note, dropping another 2% and testing key support levels around $107,000. Traders brace for more downside as liquidity thins and market sentiment sours.
Moreover, with seasonal trends historically favoring strong gains this month, the lack of upward momentum raises concerns. However, optimism around a US-China trade deal buoys stocks, yet cryptocurrencies lag behind amid renewed Fed rate-cut uncertainties. Additionally, institutional demand slips below newly mined supply for the first time in seven months, while retail investors pull back sharply. This article explores five key events to watch this week, helping miners and traders assess impacts on crypto mining profitability and overall market health.
Bitcoin Traders Gear Up for a Challenging Week
After the daily close, Bitcoin quickly retreats to $107,000, erasing weekend gains despite warnings about Sunday pumps. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms this extension of losses, with BTC/USD dipping to lows around $105,200 earlier today.
Traders like CrypNuevo predict tough conditions ahead on X, suggesting a range-bound environment that could retest lows. He highlights confluence at the 50-week EMA near $101,150, a solid support level Bitcoin revisited during October’s crash from all-time highs of $126,200 on Binance. CrypNuevo adds that this area could spark a fierce rebound.
Others, including Daan Crypto Trades, focus on exchange order book liquidity for nearby targets. He notes major clusters at $112,000 above and $105,000-$106,000 below, with the price already breaking $108,500 downside. Analyst Mark Cullen cautions that lower liquidity might tempt dips, but questions if a final push higher comes before deeper callbacks. As the US market opens, observers watch closely for direction.
BTC Price Recovery Odds Plunge Amid Seasonal Expectations
November traditionally kicks off the best six months for stocks, but Bitcoin shows no intent to follow suit. The asset already falls 2% this month, compounding pain for bulls recovering from 2018’s worst October performance.
CoinGlass data underscores the stakes, revealing average November gains over 40% since 2013. Yet prediction markets paint a grim picture—Polymarket gives just 33% odds for BTC/USD closing above $120,000 this month, with 60% for $115,000.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index lingers in fear territory, failing to reflect the latest drop to $107,000. Last week, research firm Santiment flagged this level as pivotal for investor outlooks, noting a surge in sub-$100,000 predictions. They argue markets often move against crowd expectations, so peaking FUD could signal a relief rally.
Trade War Thaw Meets Hawkish Fed Signals
This week, positive vibes around a US-China trade deal dominate stock market news, overshadowing brewing rate tensions. S&P 500 futures edge higher as markets digest tariff reductions and eased restrictions on Chinese rare earths and auto chips. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter calls it the biggest de-escalation yet.
Despite worries over US interventions in Venezuela and Nigeria, trade remains the top focus for risk-asset investors. Only cryptocurrencies feel the pressure at week’s start. Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks crumbles, offering little help—macro analyst Jordi Visser notes BTC now tracks mainly big tech amid collapsed Nasdaq ties since December 2024.
Upcoming earnings from 20% of S&P 500 firms, like AMD and Palantir, add intrigue. A government shutdown limits inflation data, leaving private-sector jobs unaffected. In the backdrop, Fed policy uncertainty grows—the central bank turns hawkish, with 2025 rate cuts no longer assured. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 63% odds for a December cut.
Trading firm Mosaic Asset Company suggests ending quantitative tightening could hedge bullishly, shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet from $9 trillion in 2022 to $6.5 trillion now and easing liquidity drains.
Institutional Supply Reversal Fuels Demand Concerns
Bitcoin’s underperformance against stocks and gold puts institutional demand back in focus this week. Farside Investors data reveals US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for three straight days through October 31, totaling significant sums with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) contributing over half.
These flows raise alarms as institutional buying fails to match daily BTC supply growth. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards flags this reversal—the first in seven months—as concerning, noting net purchases dip below mined supply, including ETFs.
This echoes dynamics before April’s local low around $75,000. Yet, as Cointelegraph reports, Visser views ETF progress as part of Bitcoin’s maturation as a macro asset, enabling large exits without chaos.
For those using a bitcoin mining calculator to gauge returns, this demand dip could pressure profitability, especially if prices test lower supports.
Retail Investors Retreat Signals Network Weakness
Since October’s nearly 20% drop from highs, retail Bitcoin investors flee the scene. Onchain analytics from CryptoQuant highlight a 26.1% plunge in active addresses—from 1.18 million in early November 2024 to 872,000 by October 30, 2025.
Contributor Carmelo Aleman ties this retreat to mass liquidations, limiting network activity and prolonging the cycle. Without retail’s emotional drive and liquidity, strong holders struggle to exit profitably, extending timelines.
Fellow contributor Pelin Ay goes further, warning of overvaluation per Metcalfe’s Law. The NVM ratio at 2.97 suggests Bitcoin sits in an overvalued zone relative to network scale, historically leading to pullbacks. She projects a potential drop to $98,500 due to this saturation.
In summary, Bitcoin faces headwinds this week, from technical tests to macro shifts. Miners assessing mining profitability calculators should monitor these events closely, as sustained low activity could hinder rebounds. Yet, historical November strength offers hope—if sentiment flips, BTC might reclaim higher ground.
